World Weather, Inc. Daily Ag Market Weather (audio)

Morning Market Weather For Thursday, July 6, 2023

WORLD WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR JULY 6, 2023

• Very little change was noted in the model data overnight
• Wheat areas in Kansas and Oklahoma will run a high risk of a grain quality decline because of too much rain in the coming week
• Northern U.S. Midwest corn and soybean production areas will not get high volumes or high frequency rain events and a greater amount of moisture will be needed to reduce crop moisture stress
• Lower U.S. Midwest crop areas will remain in favorable shape for relatively normal crop development
• Texas cotton, corn, sorghum and other crop areas will get very little rain for the next ten days while temperatures are reaching into the 90s and slightly over 100 Fahrenheit frequently resulting in rising crop moisture stress especially in unirrigated crop areas
• Northern Kazakhstan and southeastern Russia’s New Lands will experience net drying conditions for a while and stress may return to a part of the spring wheat and sunseed crop produced in the region
• India and China’s weather will remain favorably rated for summer crop development, although portions of Inner Mongolia will continue too dry and warm for optimum wheat, sunseed, sugarbeet or corn development
• Australia’s weather will be drier biased for a while after recent welcome rain, although Queensland still needs much more moisture
• Argentina wheat areas still have a big need for greater rain, but only some scattered showers are expected in this coming week
• Southern Safrinha corn harvest weather in Brazil may deteriorate late this weekend into next week as showers begin the plague the region
• The tropics are still very quiet, although a tropical cyclone will develop west of Mexico in this coming week with no threat to land

Morning Market Weather Update For Wednesday, July 5, 2023

WORLD WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR JULY 5, 2023

• Welcome rain fell in eastern Australia Monday and Tuesday of this week; The moisture will prove helpful to wheat, barley and some canola establishment, although more rain is needed
• Some beneficial rain fell across South Dakota and southern North Dakota into Wisconsin over the past two days, but more rain was needed in the upper Midwest
• Canada’s Prairies are still drying out and will continue to do so for the next ten days, although there is some potential for rain next week in a part of southern Alberta’s driest region
• Northern U.S. Plains from northern Montana northern North Dakota and portions of Minnesota are drying out and will need significant rain soon
• Most of Texas needs significant rain, but another week will go by before there is much opportunity for rain and temperatures will be seasonably warm to hot
• Northern U.S. Plains and south-central and southeastern Canada’s Prairies will be cooler than usual through the weekend and then warmer next week
• U.S. rainfall over the next ten days will be limited in the upper Midwest and northern Plains while sufficient in the lower Midwest and central Plains to support long term crop moisture needs
• Some beneficial rain will impact Argentina winter crop areas during the coming week to ten days; “some” relief to dryness is expected in Cordoba and immediate neighboring areas over time
• Good Safrinha corn and cotton harvest weather is expected through Saturday and then some rain may interfere with fieldwork from Mato Grosso do Sul into Sao Paulo and Parana for a while thereafter; Mato Grosso harvesting will remain fine
• Rain in Europe will continue erratic over the next ten days benefiting some areas more than other and greater rain may be needed in the drier areas
• CIS rainfall is expected to be relatively well distributed, though greater amounts will soon be needed in a part of Russia’s Southern Region, northern Kazakhstan and some neighboring areas of Russia’s New Lands
• China weather will be sufficient for summer crops, although Inner Mongolia and the southeastern corner of the nation will be dry for a while; crop stress will remain significant in Inner Mongolia because of dry and warm conditions
  • Rain did fall beneficially to crop areas immediately north of the Yellow River and in the North China Plain Monday and Tuesday
• India’s monsoon will continue to perform well enough to support most crops favorably
• Mexico’s monsoon will remain weak, but it should become better organized over time in the next ten days

Morning Market Weather Update for Monday, July 3, 2023

WORLD WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR JULY 3, 2023

• Routinely occurring rainfall is expected in key U.S. Midwest, Delta and southeastern states crop areas during the next ten days
• Rain will also fall in U.S. central and northern Plains periodically
• No excessive heat is expected in key central or eastern U.S. crop areas for an extended period of time, but the far western states will remain warmer than usual for a while
• Canada’s Prairies will continue too dry especially in the heart of Saskatchewan and some southern and eastern Alberta locations
• Temperatures in Canada’s Prairies and the northern U.S. Plains will be cooler than usual this week and warmer next week
• Europe weather will continue to include erratic rainfall for a while with pockets of dryness and some warm biased temperatures, but no serious threat to crops
• Western CIS crop areas are also expecting favorable weather, although Russia’s Southern Region, northern Kazakhstan and southeastern Russia’s New Lands will experience net drying conditions and some warm temperatures for a while
• China’s driest area will continue mostly north of the Yellow River and in particular Inner Mongolia where crop stress will continue in corn, sunseed, spring wheat and sugarbeet areas
• China’s most important grain and oilseed production areas will receive sufficient rain to maintain a good outlook
• India’s monsoon will perform well during the next ten days
• Eastern Australia will get some rain today and Tuesday; otherwise rain will fall most significantly in southern crop areas
• Southeast Asia rainfall will be erratic, but favorable for most crop areas
• Western Thailand and Myanmar will continue to be drier than usual leaving need for greater rain soon
• Argentina will get some rain this week, but not significantly in the driest western crop areas
• Good harvest weather is expected in Safrinha corn and cotton production areas this week

Sunday Evening Market Weather Update For July 2, 2023

WORLD WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR JULY 2, 2023

• U.S. weather is improving
• Canada’s Prairies are still dealing with dryness issues, although this week will be cooler
• Europe also has pockets of dryness, but the situation will not deteriorate much more
• CIS crop areas rated well, but some drying is expected from Russia’s Southern Region to northern Kazakhstan the southeastern Russia New Lands
• Inner Mongolia is still too dry, but key summer crop areas in China are doing well
• Western Thailand, Myanmar and Vietnam all need greater rain
• Southern Indonesia is a little dry, but other areas are fine as are the Philippines
• Eastern Australia will get rain this week; most of the nation is favorably moist
• India’s monsoon will perform well for the next two weeks
• Argentina will get “some” rain this week, but the driest areas in the west will not get enough
• Safrinha harvest weather in Brazil will be good most of this week
• No tropical cyclones are present in the world today that would threat any key agricultural area
• Mexico’s drought should be eased slowly in the next few weeks
• Southern Oscillation index has been steadily rising since early June
• El Nino conditions will change very little or weaken slightly during July

Morning Market Weather For Friday, June 30, 2023

WORLD WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR JUNE 30, 2023

• Beneficial rain fell in a part of the central Midwest overnight with parts of central Illinois into southwestern Indiana receiving more than 1.00 inch of rain; some excessive rainfall of multiple inches impacted southwestern Indiana
• A derecho impacted the Midwest Thursday coming out of Nebraska and far northeastern Kansas to northern Missouri, southern Iowa and parts of Illinois and Indiana
  • Some crop damage resulted, but the assessments are just beginning; the losses should not be as great as 2020, but it will contribute to the already smaller 2023 drought impacted corn crop
• Waves of rain will continue to impact the Midwest through the next week to ten days with some of the greatest rain occurring this weekend and early next week
• Tropical Storm Beatriz will become a hurricane today and will be close enough to the central western Mexico coast to produce torrential rain, flooding and strong wind speeds today into Sunday; Guerrero to Jalisco will be most impacted
  • Drought relief is expected and damage should be mostly near the coast and might be mostly from heavy rain and flooding
  • The hurricane may weaken to tropical storm status as it impacts the southern tip of Baja California early next week
• Canada’s Prairies will experience a cool airmass early to mid-week next week that may set off a little rain, but amounts will be light and the crop relief from dryness will be limited; nonetheless, some relief will occur from this weekend’s warm and dry bias
• West Texas will get some welcome rain tonight and again Saturday night resulting in some 0.30 to 1.00 inch amounts of rain with several totals of 1.00 to 2.00 inches; the relief will be welcome for many crops impacted by excessive heat and dryness over the past ten days
• Hot weather continued in the southern half of the Plains Thursday and some of it pushed into the southwestern Corn Belt and Delta
  • The heat will advance to the east today and Saturday, but should breakdown as it moves to the east
• India’s rainfall is expected to be favorable over the next two weeks
• China, Europe, the CIS, Australia and South America Weather outlooks did not change much overnight

Morning Market Weather For Thursday, June 29, 2023

WORLD WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR JUNE 28, 2023

• Hot temperatures occurred Wednesday in the U.S. central and southern Plains with extreme highs over 100 Fahrenheit (38C) occurring from southeastern Nebraska through central Kansas to the heart of Texas
  • Missouri heated up into the 90s (32-37C) as did western Iowa and eastern Nebraska
• Central U.S. heat will advance to the southwestern and central Corn Belt today and Friday and then quickly abate as showers and thunderstorms bring cooler air and much needed moisture to the region
• Rainfall in the Midwest over the next ten days will be sufficient to improve topsoil moisture in many areas that have been driest for the longest period of time; follow up rain will still be needed, but relief to crop stress is likely
• Rain from Nebraska to Ohio will be sufficient over the coming week to improve crops that have been most stressed in recent weeks
  • Missouri and Kansas rainfall may be lightest along with the  northern Midwest from the Dakotas to Michigan, although portions of this latter region received rain recently
  • The driest areas in the Midwest are from eastern Nebraska and eastern Kansas to Indiana and western Kentucky and the entire region will get at least some rain with a number of areas getting “significant” amounts
• No serious changes were noted in South America, with western Argentina likely to continue too dry; good harvest weather in Brazil Safrinha crop areas
• Europe and the western CIS will receive some periodic rainfall to the benefit of most crops; there will be a few pockets of dryness, but no broad-based problem area is expected
• A few areas in Russia’s Southern Region, Kazakhstan and southeastern Russia New Lands will have an ongoing need for rain, but crop development should advance well
• Northern China – north of the lower Yellow River – will continue drier and warmer than usual, but it does not look like there will be any expansion into key corn and soybean production areas
• India’s monsoon moisture will be favorably distributed into the first half of July
• Eastern Australia will get some rain early next week, although it is not advertised to be quite as wet as it had been in previous forecast model runs.
• Hurricane Adrian formed southwest of Mexico Wednesday, but poses no threat to land
• Tropical Depression 2E formed southwest of Oaxaca, Mexico overnight and will be close enough to southwestern Mexico to induce some increased rainfall in previously dry areas

Morning Market Weather For Wednesday, June 28, 2023

WORLD WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR JUNE 28, 2023

• GFS model may be a bit overboard on two week rain amounts in the heart of the Midwest, but all models today continue to produce an outlook that brings relief to driest areas of the Midwest during the next ten days to two weeks.
• Canada’s central Prairies do not get much moisture over the next ten days and with temperatures near to above normal crop moisture stress will be on the rise with many areas getting too dry
  • Southern and east-central Alberta and western and Central Saskatchewan have been fighting dryness all season and this pattern will not help the situation
• Mexico’s monsoon rains are still expected to increase during the next two weeks, but the amount of moisture that gets entrained to the southwestern United States will be limited for a while longer
• Northern U.S. Plains and Manitoba, Canada weather will be favorably mixed with showers and sunshine during the coming ten days
• Europe and western CIS weather continues to be mostly favorable with a mix of rain and sunshine expected throughout the next ten days; Pockets of dryness will remain
• China’s heat wave and drought environment is not likely to have a big impact on key corn and soybean production areas, despite the media hype. It is hot and stressful, but the key corn and soybean production areas will be fine
  • The area impacted will mostly be north of the Yellow River as we have been discussing for a while – that region produces spring wheat, sugar beets and little corn, but is not considered to be a key part of the nation’s corn and soybean production region and relief is coming
• Eastern Australia rain is still expected next week
• India’s central and northwestern Rain will occur as expected Tuesday except with a little less follow up rain next week relative to yesterday’s forecast
• Argentina has a little more rain coming in some of its wheat country Sunday and Monday, but the drier areas in the west will still need more

Morning Market Weather Update For Tuesday, June 27, 2023

WORLD WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR JUNE 27, 2023

• Not much changed overnight
• Europe and the western CIS will be trending wetter this week
• China will receive rain in most of the nation east of Tibet with areas north of the Yellow River staying driest, although getting some rain as well
• Eastern Australia’s best rain opportunity will be late in the weekend and early next week, but some rain will impact interior South Australia and western and some central New South Wales locations today into Wednesday
• Southeast Asia rainfall will be more active this week improving topsoil moisture for many areas from the mainland areas into Indonesia
• India’s rainfall will be improving additionally this week with additional rain through Friday and more during the middle to latter part of next week favoring Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh and southeastern Rajasthan as well as Haryana
• Interior west-central and southern India will receive restricted rainfall, although some timely rain is likely in early July
• U.S. Midwest rainfall will be erratic and light through the weekend and a little greater next week especially in the second half of next week and into the following weekend
  • Many areas will get rain, but a serious improvement in low soil moisture is not very likely in very many areas, but any rain will be better than none
• U.S. Midwest temperatures will be hot from Kansas to Illinois Wednesday through Friday (temperatures extremes in the 90s and near 100 Fahrenheit are expected
• Most other Midwest temperatures will be more seasonable over the next two weeks
• U.S. southern Plains will also be hot today through Thursday  with cooling Friday into the weekend
• West Texas will have opportunity for some rain briefly Friday into the weekend with local amounts sufficient for some welcome relief to recent hot, dry conditions
• U.S. Delta will be quite warm to hot Wednesday through Saturday; temperature extremes over 100 Fahrenheit are likely
• Canada’s Prairies will remain drier biased for the next ten days especially in southern and east-central Alberta and central and western Saskatchewan
• No changes in South America weather were noted with good harvest conditions in Brazil and Argentina while western wheat areas of Argentina still need rain

Morning Market Weather Update For Monday, June 26, 2023

WORLD WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR JUNE 26, 2023

• Not much changed overnight
• Europe and the western CIS will be trending wetter this week
• China will receive rain in most of the nation east of Tibet with areas north of the Yellow River staying driest
• Eastern Australia’s best rain opportunity will be late in the weekend and early next week, but some rain will impact interior South Australia and western and some central New South Wales locations later today into Wednesday
• Southeast Asia rainfall will be more active this week improving topsoil moisture for many areas from the mainland areas into Indonesia
• India’s rainfall will be improving additionally this week with some heavy rain likely in central parts of the nation
• Substantial rain fell in portions of the Dakotas into northern Minnesota during the weekend while lighter rain fell to the east from southern South Dakota and northern Nebraska into northern Iowa and northern Illinois
  • The moisture was welcome and eased dryness, but a big part of the Midwest dryness was not relieved and dryness expanded to the southwest because of warm to hot temperatures and no rain
• Not much additional relief is expected in the U.S. Midwest until late this week and in the weekend when the next bout of scattered showers and thunderstorms evolve
  • Cooling will accompany the weekend rain and follow up showers are expected next week
• The U.S. Gulf of Mexico opens as a moisture source during the weekend and a more normal pattern occurs next week as the Bermuda high finally gets in its normal position
• Mild temperatures will impact the Midwest early this week and then the southwestern Corn Belt (Illinois to Missouri and Kansas will get hot again Wednesday through Friday
• Texas will be hot and dry most of this week, but will cool down during the late weekend and early next week
• Canada’s Prairies will remain drier biased for the next ten days, despite some showers
• Western Argentina wheat areas will stay drier biased

Sunday Evening Market Weather Update For June 25, 2023

WORLD WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR JUNE 25, 2023

• Substantial rain fell in portions of the Dakotas into northern Minnesota during the weekend while lighter rain fell to the east from southern South Dakota and northern Nebraska into northern Iowa and northern Illinois
  • The moisture was welcome and eased dryness, but a big part of the Midwest dryness was not relieved and dryness expanded to the southwest because of warm to hot temperatures and no rain
• Not much additional relief is expected in the U.S. Midwest until late this week and in the weekend when the next bout of scattered showers and thunderstorms evolve
  • Cooling will accompany the weekend rain
• Mild temperatures will impact the Midwest early this week and then the southwestern Corn Belt (Illinois to Missouri and Kansas will get hot again
• Very warm to hot temperatures will impact the southern Plains most of this week; including mot of Texas and a part of the Delta
• Canada’s Prairies will remain drier biased for the next ten days, despite some showers
• Europe weather has improved with recent showers, but much more rain is needed to restore good to excellent crop ratings
• Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and northern Kazakhstan are expecting rain over the next ten days that will support most crops favorably
• Xinjiang, China will experience mild temperatures over the coming ten days, but crop conditions will remain favorable
• China’s crop areas near and north of the Yellow River have experienced drought like conditions and relief will be slow to come
• Other areas in China will see and good mix of weather in the next ten days
• Southern China’s early rice crop may have been damaged by excessive rainfall during the weekend
• Eastern Australia will get a significant rain event this weekend into next week, but it has diminished from that advertised Friday and further weakening is possible
• Erratic rain will continue in Southeast Asia
• Central India will be trending much wetter over the next ten days to two weeks while the west-central and far south receive less than usual rain
• Western Argentina wheat areas will stay drier biased