Morning Market Weather Update For Wednesday, May 17, 2023

WORLD WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR MAY 17, 2023

• Argentina’s rain potential for late this week and next week is still very good and wheat planting should proceed normally
• No change in Brazil’s weather outlook was noted overnight with Safrinha crop areas drying down normally
  • There is no risk of frost or freezes in the next two weeks in any grain, coffee or sugarcane production area
• China’s dryness in Inner Mongolia will remain in place with some potential expansion to the southwest into Shanxi over time, but for now only northern Hebei is included in the dry bias associated with the Inner Mongolia dryness
• Russia and Ukraine weather is still expected to be favorable over the next ten days to two weeks with timely rain expected
• Russia’s eastern New Lands and a part of northern Kazakhstan may dry down again as time moves along, though it will be gradual
• Thailand and immediate neighboring areas are back into a net drying mode for the next several days with rain resuming late in the weekend and especially next week
  • Water supply is low and concern about El Nino reducing rainfall during the monsoon this year continues to be a key concern
• Indonesia and Malaysia rainfall and soil moisture are still supporting crops favorably
• Canada’s drought region in the Prairies is not likely to change much over the next week and rainfall in the second week is expected to be a little too sporadic and light for a serious bout of relief, although some rain may fall
• Ontario and Quebec will be impacted by some frost and freezes in the coming week, but permanent damage to wheat is not likely and most of the corn and soybean crops are just now beginning to be planted
• Frost in eastern Canada’s Prairies and in part of North Dakota and Minnesota later this week is not expected to induce any permanent damage for crops
• U.S. Midwest, Delta and southeastern states have nearly ideal soil moisture and weather will continue to be well mixed with timely rainfall and seasonable to slightly warmer than usual temperatures expected
  • Warming in late May and early June will accelerate drying rates in some areas and that should be monitored
• West-central and southwestern U.S. Plains rainfall will occur more often in the next ten days