Morning Market Weather Update For Friday, September 22, 2023

WORLD WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR SEPTEMBER 22, 2023

• 06z GFS model was too wet for the U.S. Midwest in the second week of the forecast this morning
• Welcome rain will fall in the northern Plains for wheat planting, emergence and establishment, although some disruption to harvesting is expected
• Western U.S. Corn and Soybean Belt rainfall this weekend will help moisten the topsoil, but no serious runoff is expected that would raise river levels
• Greater rain is still advertised for center west and center south Brazil in early October, although some of the increases suggested by the GFS model seemed overdone
• Western Argentina drought relief is unlikely to be very great, although a few showers will occur this weekend
• South Australia remains drier than usual through the next ten days, although the GFS attempted to increase second week rainfall in the east
• No change in the Black Sea region dryness was suggested over the next ten days, although there is some suggested change for greater rain in days 11-15, though confidence is low
• China’s weather will be wet this weekend into early next week from eastern Sichuan to Henan; other areas will experience a more favorable opportunity for some net drying.
• Rainy weather is expected in the North Sea countries of Europe this weekend into next week as well as in the eastern Adriatic Sea region and neighboring western Balkan Countries
• The remainder of eastern Europe will continue dry out
• India’s late season monsoon rainfall is expected to continue performing well
• Mexico’s drought worsened in the most recent two weeks, despite a few areas of greater rain in the west; unirrigated crops may not be performing well this year
• Southeast Asia rainfall has decreased once again
• Tropical Cyclones will evolve in many areas in the western Pacific Ocean, South China Sea and Indian Ocean next week and into the following weekend
• Subtropical storm development is expected off the U.S. Carolina coast today and it will move into North Carolina and Virginia this weekend producing heavy rain and windy conditions, but damage is not likely to be very great; some flooding will impact the middle Atlantic Coast region.