Morning Market Weather Update For April 5, 2023

WORLD WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR APRIL 5, 2023

• U.S. central and southern hard red winter wheat areas experienced strong wind speeds, extremely low humidity and very warm temperatures Tuesday further stressing all crops, especially the unirrigated crop
• Model forecast changes for U.S. hard red winter wheat areas are showing up a little more consistently today with both the operational GFS and ECMWF ensemble suggesting a wetter second week for central and eastern parts of hard red winter wheat country
  • As noted in our long range outlook released last week this potential change has a good chance of verifying, although the high Plains region will not likely be included
• Impressive snowfall occurred Tuesday from South Dakota to southeastern Manitoba, Canada and Minnesota with totals of 4 to 11 inches common and local amounts to 14 inches at Pierre, South Dakota
  • The snow will linger in northern parts of eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota today as well as in southeastern Manitoba and southwestern Ontario, Canada
• U.S. Midwest crop areas outside of the far northwest will experience sufficient warm and dry weather this weekend and especially next week to firm the topsoil and allow some farming activity to begin
  • The Delta crop areas will also see some improved opportunity for planting
  • The odds are great that rain will develop in the Plains and western two-thirds of the Midwest late in the second week and into the third weeks of the forecast
• West Texas will continue dry biased for another week with “some” showers possible in the second and third week outlooks, but a general soaking is not likely
• California will start trending a little wetter again near mid-month
• North Africa will be dry biased in the next ten days
  • Recent rain in northeastern Algeria and northern Tunisia helped east dryness, but more is needed in all of North Africa
• Spain will continue to be drier than usual for the next ten days
• India weather will be more typically dry in its winter crop region in the next two weeks than seen in recent weeks
• More rain fell in China’s lower Yellow River Basin and North China Plain Tuesday finishing out a three day rain event that bolstered soil moisture significantly throughout the key wheat production region and setting the stage for aggressive spring planting
• China’s rapeseed area will stay plenty wet for a while
• No changes in Australia or South Africa overnight and most of South America weather was unchanged as well