Morning Market Weather For Wednesday, January 24, 2024

WORLD WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR JANUARY 24, 2024

• 00z GFS model was too cold in eastern Canada and the U.S. Midwest during week two generating too much snow in the central Plains – this model run should be tossed out today at least for the second week forecast
  • 06z GFS model run looks better
• Argentina rainfall is still minimal through day 10 of the forecast today
• Argentina showers and thunderstorms develop in days 11-15, although the distribution of “meaningful” rain is a little erratic in today’s forecasts
• GFS Ensemble rainfall for Argentina in week two has been reduced in today’s forecasts
• ECMWF model has reduced precipitation in Mato Grosso do Sul, southern Mato Grosso and Sao Paulo relative to that of Tuesday in days 8-10 whereas the GFS model has not offered much change of significance
• Most models today are in agreement that rainfall from Sao Paulo, southwestern Minas Gerais and far northern Parana to Mato Grosso and southern Goias will be lighter than usual in the first week to nearly ten days of the forecast
  • Crop conditions should stay mostly good, despite a firming topsoil due to adequate subsoil moisture
• Above normal rainfall is still advertised for areas from Bahia and northern Minas Gerais into Tocantins, Brazil in the first week to ten days of today’s forecast
• U.S. southwestern states, Great Plains and Mexico are advertised wetter in week two of the forecast today by the GFS Ensemble and dictated by the Madden Julian Oscillation
  • The wetter bias may impact a part of the Midwest late in week 2 and possibly in early week 3
• North America temperatures will rise well above normal this weekend through most of next week and then gradually cool down in early February beginning in the western half of North America first
• Canada’s Prairies and the U.S. northern Plains will be mostly dry for 8-9 days and then some precipitation will begin with the northern Plains wettest
• Stormy weather in U.S. Delta, Tennessee River Basin, southeastern states and lower and eastern Midwest will continue today into Sunday and then be followed by 5-7 days of drier weather
  • Some flooding rain is still expected in the Delta
• 2-Day rain totals from eastern Texas to central Arkansas have already ranged from 2.00 to 5.00 inches with local totals over 6.00 inches
• Tropical Cyclone Kirrily will move inland to northeastern Australia near Townsville City, Queensland Thursday producing some heavy rain and coastal flooding as well as some strong wind speeds, though the system will come inland with tropical storm intensity which should spare the region from serious damage
  • Some rain from the storm will reach into a part of Queensland’s grain, oilseed and cotton country, but the impact will be beneficial for that region
• China’s greatest rain in the coming week will be in the southeastern corner of the nation where waves of rain are likely south of the Yangtze River
  • The rain will continue in week 2 of the forecast with some expansion north into east-central parts of the nation
• Waves of snow and some rain will continue to impact the western CIS keeping the flood potential high this spring
• West-central and southwestern Europe, Italy and North Africa are still advertised dry for the next ten days
• The bulk of India is still advertised to be dry over the next ten days