Morning Market Weather For Thursday, May 15, 2025

WORLD WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR MAY 15, 2025

• Rain is underway today in the southeastern half of Saskatchewan, Canada, far southwestern Manitoba and the western Dakotas where significant rainfall of 0.75 to 2.50 inches is anticipated with a few amounts of 2.50 to more than 3.00 inches likely in the western Dakotas and far southeastern Saskatchewan. The precipitation will bolster soil moisture and ease some long term dryness
• Most other U.S. crop areas east of the Rocky Mountains will get rain at one time or another during the next two weeks, although rain from the central Plains to the heart of the Midwest will hold off until next week
  • The Gulf of Mexico coastal region is unlikely to get much rain
  • The southwestern Plains (including western Kansas and eastern Colorado into West Texas will be dry for the next ten days
  • Most models removed rain from West Texas in the second week of the forecast
  • Interior parts of the Pacific Northwest (Yakima Basin and Columbia River Basin do not get much rain over the next two weeks
• Rain was increased by the ECMWF model in China’s dry region for the second week forecast today and the GFS has been wetter in that second week for a while
• ECMWF continues to promote dryness in the North Sea region for the next ten days while the GFS is still advertising rain after day ten
  • The potential for some rain after day ten makes the most sense – the ECMWF may be too dry
• Black Sea region precipitation continues to be advertised with Ukraine wettest and Russia’s Southern region and western Kazakhstan driest, but not completely dry
• Southern Australia wheat, barley and canola areas are still advertised to be drier than usual for at least the next ten days
• Some rain developed in far southeastern Queensland and northeastern New South Wales, Australia Wednesday and some additional showers are expected there for a couple of additional days
• No serious changes in South America where Argentina is poised for one of its best wheat planting years in a very long time and Safrinha corn and cotton areas will receive little to no rain outside of Paraguay and some Parana locations late next week and into the following weekend
• Significant rain fell in northeastern and north-central Algeria and northern Tunisia overnight and additional rain is expected to benefit late season wheat and barley as they finish reproduction, fill and mature
• Eastern Europe cool weather will slowly abate over the next week
• Frost and freezes are still expected this weekend in eastern Canada’s Prairies and a part of North Dakota and northern Minnesota with a limited amount of crop damage resulting
• Aggressive early season start to the Monsoon Season is expected in Southeast Asia and southern India